Capex Signal #0 — What this notebook is (and how to read it)

Capex Signal is a weekly note on **AI infrastructure spending** and the practical implications for semis. I’m starting where signals are cleanest: **semiconductor equipment (WFE / semicap)**. Over time, I’ll expand outward to **AI chips** and **memory/HBM**, because that’s where capex becomes revenue. ## The core idea In this sector, the market gets loud fast. To stay grounded, I use a simple hierarchy: 1) **Constraint** (what is actually limiting output?) 2) **Intensity** (how much more equipment/process complexity is required?) 3) **Durability** (is it a one-quarter timing issue or a multi-year slope?) Most “AI capex” arguments break because they skip step (1). ## What you’ll get each week Each weekly post has two layers: ### Free layer (investor-friendly) - **8–12 bullets**: what changed + why it matters - Short **“so what”**: how I’d interpret it and what to watch next ### Premium layer (technical depth) - The mechanism in plain language (process/physics intuition, not jargon for its own sake) - A durability check: base/bull/bear framing - A short “what would change my mind” trigger list - **Sources / receipts** - A small **options/trading education** corner (general, risk-defined; not personalized advice) For now, I’ll publish primarily free while the format gels. If the premium layer proves useful and readers ask for it, I’ll turn on paid access gradually. ## How to use this - If you’re a long-term investor: treat this as a **framework** and a **watchlist of triggers**. - If you trade around earnings: treat it as a way to separate **real cycle changes** from **one-off sentiment moves**. ## Scope + rules - Focus: **semicap + semis** (AMAT/LRCX/KLAC/ASML + NVDA/TSMC/AMD + memory/HBM) and selected AI apps (e.g., PLTR). - No crypto. - Not investment advice. If you want a starting point, begin with the most recent weekly post, then use the archive to follow themes like AI capex, packaging intensity, and memory/HBM constraints.