Learning Path — Where to Start
A progressive curriculum for understanding semiconductor capex.
Week 1: Foundation
- Read: "Semiconductors 101" (this site)
- Watch: ASML's "How It's Made" video on EUV lithography
- Follow: @automats on Twitter for daily semiconductor news
- Action: Bookmark this site and subscribe to the newsletter
Week 2: The Ecosystem
- Read: "The Capex Multiplier" (this site)
- Listen: One semiconductor deep-dive podcast episode (try "Fabricated Knowledge" or "SemiAnalysis")
- Action: Create a watchlist of 5 capex-related stocks (try NVDA, TSM, ASML, LAM, KLA)
Week 3: Financials
- Read: "Key Metrics Cheat Sheet" (this site)
- Study: One full earnings call transcript (try KLA or LAM — they're shorter than NVIDIA)
- Action: Look up book-to-bill trends for the past 4 quarters for one equipment company
Week 4: Deep Dive
- Pick one: Equipment type (lithography, etch, deposition, or metrology)
- Research: Top 2-3 players; market share; technology trends
- Write: One-page thesis on why this segment matters
Ongoing Habits
Earnings Calls to Watch (Quarterly)
| Company | Why Watch | When |
|---|---|---|
| ASML | Lithography bellwether | Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct |
| LAM/AMAT/KLA | WFE demand | Quarterly |
| TSMC | Foundry utilization | Quarterly |
| NVDA | AI demand | Feb, May, Aug, Nov |
| GOOGL/MSFT/AMZN/META | Hyperscaler capex | Quarterly |
Newsletters
- Capex Signal (this site)
- SemiAnalysis (technical deep-dives)
- Fabricated Knowledge (industry analysis)
Books
- "Chip War" by Chris Miller — Essential history of the semiconductor industry
- "The Big Score" by Michael Malone — Silicon Valley origins
Online Communities
- r/semiconductors (Reddit)
- SemiWiki (technical discussions)
Key Insight
Don't try to learn everything at once. Start with the big picture (how chips are made), then follow the money (capex flow), then dive into specific companies or technologies that interest you.